RUSSIA - Long-term contracts with Moscow were not vulnerable to external shocks or market fluctuations, Berliner Zeitung has said. Germany is paying five times as much for imported gas as it did before abandoning its long-term Russian supply contracts as part of the EU sanctions, Berliner Zeitung has reported. Berlin now has to rely on the volatile international energy market, which is reeling from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, the newspaper wrote on Wednesday. According to Berliner Zeitung, Germany’s gas import price has risen from €12 ($13.65) per megawatt-hour in 2020, when long-term contracts with Russia were still in force, to more than €60 ($68.25) this week amid the continued exchange of strikes between the US and Iran.

USA - Temperatures hit sweltering highs across much of the central United States on Saturday as forecasters warned that dangerously hot weather from Dallas to North Dakota would push into next week, with roughly 80 million people facing heat advisories. A heat dome, where atmospheric conditions trap heat, was forecast to create sustained high temperatures and accumulating discomfort. Meanwhile overnight lows were not expected to come down enough for people to have much chance to recover, allowing heat stress to build as the bad weather lingers, forecasters said. With the high humidity, it feels even worse.

EUROPE - Weather forecasting data suggests temperatures in Europe could hit 50C [122F] for the first time ever this month as Spain, Portugal and France face their hottest days in history. The UK is coming out of its third heatwave of the year, but temperatures are expected to rise again soon and bring a fourth scorching spell. And a similar pattern appears to be developing on the continent. Professor Bill McGuire, Emeritus Professor of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at UCL, previously warned we could see 50C in Europe before the end of this year. He said: “It would be no surprise if 50C was exceeded, either later this summer or next year, when the heating impact of the unprecedented El Niño building in the Pacific will be at its greatest.”

IRAN - Iran’s leaders are fighting each other almost as much as they’re battling the West, with some senior politicians scrambling to save US talks while the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leans into the renewed war, regional sources told The Post. With Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei out of public view, there’s no one left to force the rival factions back into line — meaning the future of the conflict may now be decided by a power struggle in Tehran, not by Washington.

GERMANY - A network of German research centers and defense contractors are working on specialized nuclear and shockwave physics projects. According to Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, Berlin’s NATO allies think this work bears all the hallmarks of a covert atomic weapons program. Thirty German universities have stepped up their work in specialized materials science, shock wave physics, and nuclear and neutron physics, Russia’s SVR intelligence agency said in a statement on Monday.

SAUDI ARABIA - Saudi Arabia must recognise Israel to secure its civil nuclear deal with the US, Donald Trump has said. The President was criticised after announcing the agreement on Wednesday over fears it could enable the Gulf kingdom to obtain an atomic weapon. Experts warned there were not enough guardrails in place to prevent nuclear proliferation in an already unstable region. But on Thursday Mr Trump insisted the deal will see 'no enrichment of material' and 'pertains only to non-military use'. He said it 'will be approved' then added it 'is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords'. Mr Trump brokered the agreements in his first term which saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain recognise the Jewish state. Sudan, Morocco and Kazakhstan have since also signed on. The US leader is desperate to make Saudi Arabia join, which would represent a historic achievement in the Middle East.

USA - As if the growing risk of a global economic disaster springing from the US-Israeli war on Iran weren't enough to worry about, researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center are warning that miscalculations and false assumptions may have resulted in an enormous underestimation of the worst-case effects of a solar storm. Solar storms are events in which the sun experiences a massive explosion of energy, charged particles and magnetic fields. From solar flares to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), these explosions pose a danger to all kinds of electronics, from your cell phone, computer and car to gas pumps, airplanes, power stations and everything in between.

UK - Britain's government said Thursday it had withdrawn all remaining diplomatic staff from Iran as the conflict between Iran and the US escalates. "Due to the security situation, UK staff have been temporarily withdrawn from Iran. Our embassy continues to operate remotely," the foreign office said on its website. Britain withdrew its embassy staff from Iran in June, following the same move by other European nations [France and Germany] as well as Australia and New Zealand. Those withdrawals came as Israel launched renewed airstrikes on Iran, claiming the Islamic Republic was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon.

UK - The boss of British Gas has warned the country risks winter energy shortages as reserves dwindle. Chris O’Shea said Britain was at risk because of a lack of gas storage facilities. His warning came as gas prices surged to their highest level in a year, driven by concerns about threats to Middle Eastern supply. There were also moves by electricity grid bosses on Thursday to shore up Britain’s energy system by restricting how much power can be exported to Europe during times of stress. The National Energy System Operator (NESO) said the curbs would take effect from Friday, as it faces questions over how close Britain came to blackouts during a heatwave in June. Official data show the UK currently has less than a week’s worth of gas reserves. European nations typically hold several weeks’ worth of supply, though stocks on the Continent have also been run down.

UK - The first drought of the summer has been declared in the UK after record-breaking heatwaves. Parts of Wales have been placed under drought status after high temperatures dried up riverbeds and raised concerns among farmers about grazing conditions and water supplies. The risk of wildfires has significantly increased with North Wales in particular experiencing a number of major blazes in recent weeks. Many parts of England are in prolonged dry weather status as the country has received just 3 per cent of its average July rainfall. Wildfires have been raging across England, while Scotland has also been hit by a major blaze in the Cairngorms. Drought has been declared in parts of North Wales and the Upper Severn catchment, including Gwynedd, Anglesey, Conwy, the Dee and Clwyd areas.

EUROPE - European wildfires threatening Madrid and French resorts have become impossible to control in some areas as hundreds of thousands, including British holidaymakers, are forced from their homes. Large forest fires have become 'out of control' in southwestern France and central Spain today, sparking an evacuation of an estimated 200,000 people from their homes. The fire in Madrid is said to put at risk a NASA and ESA communications complex, one of three comprising a network studying deep space. About 141,000 people fled their homes in Gironde and Landes in France, while 60,000 were forced to evacuate their houses in Spain, the countries' respective Interior ministries confirmed.

MIDDLE EAST - Oil prices settled above $100 on Thursday for the first time since May after Yemen's Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing further global supply disruptions following a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs said Brent might exceed $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter and average $100 next year if the strait remains disrupted through 2027, with further [upheaval] if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal also suffer persistent disruption.

USA - A powerful version of ChatGPT went rogue and hacked another technology company during internal testing, OpenAI has admitted. The Silicon Valley AI giant admitted last night that one of its AI bots escaped from a supposedly secure IT system during a trial-run of its hacking capabilities. OpenAI, the $850 billion (£630 billion) AI lab, said the “unprecedented” hack had seen its AI bot infiltrate another AI and coding business called Hugging Face and attempt to steal information. The hack will raise fears that AI labs could struggle to contain their most advanced creations and revive concerns that new tools could be repurposed for unstoppable cyber attacks.

MIDDLE EAST - The price of crude oil is a broken barometer. Acute pain in the world energy market has switched to the trio of refined products that we actually consume: diesel, petrol and jet fuel. The IATA jet fuel index for global airlines has hit $154 a barrel in Europe and $149 in North America, almost double the cost of underlying crude. In trade parlance, the “crack spread” has gone mad. It is arguably worse for diesel. The spread over crude has reached $80 in Rotterdam and $88 in New York, the highest since records began. The whole global market is seizing up. “I’ve never seen an energy environment this stretched,” said Jeff Currie, perhaps the world’s best-known oil guru. Oil traders say it would not take much at this stage to set off a sudden “non-linear” spike to $200 levels. We have been lulled into complacency by deceptively moderate oil headlines and by assumptions that the Iran war has settled into a low-intensity management problem. It is nothing of the sort.

USA - Donald Trump has warned Iran that for every ship it attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces will blow up a bridge or power plant. The US president said no bridges or power plants were off limits, and that Washington could target some in Tehran. Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social: “From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.” Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said: “Our defense doctrine is clear: eye for an eye. Any aggression against Iran, including our infrastructure, will compel a powerful and decisive response."