UK - If you aren’t alarmed yet, you should be. Everything bad is escalating. Each ratchet upwards brings the heightened prospect of calamity. The planet’s two major wars are escalating. Russia and Ukraine are preparing for another dark winter. The war in Iran, a misconceived act of hubris compounded by inept prosecution, sees Washington and Tehran locked in a race against time whose logic impels more war. Don’t expect Russia and China to stand by as that happens. Diplomatic tensions are escalating. Tensions between the West and Israel are escalating. Economic tensions are escalating.
GERMANY - ‘To the victor, the spoils’ – or will they be ‘firewalled’ again? We have long been reporting here on TGP on the fact that the establishment forces in Europe, now that they are being outvoted by the right-wing parties, have to rely on the ‘firewall’ strategies to keep the victors from governing. In the Parliamentary system, if a party is the most voted, but does not have over 50% of the vote, they need to form a coalition with secondary forces to govern.
GERMANY - Rebels in German chancellor’s party consider switching support after ‘catastrophic’ Saxony-Anhalt election. The AfD has been trapped by a firewall policy in which Germany’s centrist parties refuse to co-operate with it at the state or federal level. But after a sweeping election victory on Sunday night, cracks are starting to appear. Rebels in the German chancellor’s party want to lend their support to the hard-Right AfD, The Telegraph understands.
GERMANY - A hard-Left party in Germany has entered talks with the AfD about helping it to form a government in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a populist Left-wing party, announced it would enter co-operation talks with Alternative for Germany (AfD). The BSW, which shares some of the AfD’s views on mass migration and Russia, said it would hold discussions on “education, peace and energy supply policies”. BSW officials have ruled out a formal coalition with the AfD but are open to an informal agreement where they help the hard-Right party to govern and pass legislation. The BSW party, which was founded in 2024, took 5.3 per cent of the vote and five seats. Much like the AfD, BSW opposes military support for Ukraine, wants to end sanctions on Russia and hopes to resume imports of cheap Russian gas. Both parties also campaign against mass migration to Germany.
MIDDLE EAST - Intense fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi insurgents and forces loyal to the internationally recognized government of Yemen continued on Wednesday, with a focus on controlling Red Sea coastal territory needed by the Houthis to threaten shipping in the Red Sea at Iran’s behest. “Clashes and attacks were reported in the western provinces of Taiz, Al-Bayda, Al-Dhale and Al-Hudaydah, while government reinforcements were sent to the strategic western coastal city of Mokha near the Bab al-Mandab Strait,” Turkey’s Anadolu Agency reported on Wednesday. Much of the fighting was done by the “Giants Brigade,” also known as the Southern Giants Brigade, a coalition of about 15,000 fighters in Yemen who have been loyal to the government throughout the long Yemeni civil war. The Giants Brigade is regarded as an elite group within the Yemeni National Resistance Coalition, the broader designation for pro-government fighters in Yemen. Founded in 2015, most members of the brigade are tribal fighters who loathe the Houthis. They have received training and funding from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
YEMEN - Yemen’s Houthi rebels have seized a key Red Sea port city, tightening their grip on one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes and posing a fresh threat to global trade. The fall of Mokha – the historic coffee-trading hub that gave mocha its name – followed days of fierce ground battles with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, in a war that has reignited since early July. The city is located less than 50 miles from Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow passage at the southern mouth of the Red Sea through which much of the world’s oil and trade flows towards the Suez Canal. Jubilant Iran-backed Houthis entered Mokha early on Thursday aboard Toyota pickup trucks with rifles raised, chanting “Death to America, death to Israel”.
MIDDLE EAST - Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen are aiming to drag Saudi Arabia into another conflict as they fight for control of the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait that accounts for almost 15 per cent of maritime trade. The group has attacked Israel, US ships and commercial traffic in the Red Sea over the past three years, but it has now focused its fire on Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, it launched a massive barrage of missiles against Saudi towns and energy infrastructure, forcing the shutdown of several oil installations. The fighting has unravelled a 2022 truce between the rebels, who control north Yemen, and a Saudi-led military coalition that fought a devastating war that left hundreds of thousands dead, many from disease and famine. “Bab al-Mandeb, that’s the real strategic real estate here,” said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert and fellow with the New America think tank. “The Houthis are aiming to consolidate their control on the Red Sea.”
USA - Dwindling global refinery capacity is threatening to turn what started as a Middle East oil-supply crisis into a more complex global oil headache impacting gasoline, diesel and other fuels. Drone and missile attacks launched by the Iran-backed Houthis on refineries and oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia have aggravated long-brewing problems with the supply of Middle Eastern oil products. Further refinery constraints in Russia and in China have added to the bottleneck of refined products. Closer to home, those dynamics are showing at the gas pump. This past Labor Day weekend, American drivers paid the highest prices for gasoline ever recorded for the holiday, according to AAA. That capped a summer driving season where gas prices unusually kept moving higher past their traditional peak around the Fourth of July. And more worryingly, retail diesel prices remain at a record high around $5.90 a gallon, fanning concerns about inflation as global financial markets are under strain from a bond selloff and US dollar weakness. Diesel powers heavy-duty vehicles and machinery, and touches every corner of the economy.
IRAN - The Iranian nuclear site buried under Pickaxe Mountain has seen an increased level of construction work over the last year, analysts reviewing satellite imagery shared with CNN on Wednesday. Construction at the site, analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank told CNN, "has shifted from active excavation toward probably internal construction and continued exterior reinforcement.” The site has seen "more road activity," as well as "raising and hardening of the (tunnel) portal accesses, paving of the internal road network, reinforcement around access areas, and the flattening and removal" of excavated dirt. According to CSIS, the site has likely been designed to be a safe haven for Iran's nuclear program, CNN reported.
UK - A monumental act of national self-harm to stop Muslim voters from deserting Labour for the Greens. In his first major foreign policy move as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham – along with his hapless sidekick, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband – has managed to trigger a major international incident that threatens to leave Britain poorer, less secure and weaker overseas. At a stroke, he managed to cast into doubt our bilateral relationship with the region’s only democracy – which brings thousands of jobs and billions of pounds into our economy, not to mention collaborations on security, military hardware and tech – and infuriate the White House, which is preparing to retaliate, probably with a trade war. We will end up poorer, not only because of losing Israeli business but also wealth from America. Thirty-eight US states have adopted laws or policies that penalise anyone boycotting Israel; that’s before we even consider the spectre of Donald Trump’s famous tariffs.
UK - It is all an act, apparently. That was the message that British diplomats reportedly gave to their American counterparts in advance of sanctions on the Jewish state. The moves are “largely symbolic and will have no material impact on the UK’s wider relationship with Israel on trade and security”, they murmured, according to reporting by Bloomberg. “Britain’s relationship with Israel will continue largely as it is.” So what was the point? Well, the upcoming by-election in Keir Starmer’s old seat of Holborn and St Pancras might have something to do with it. The Labour Government might be sitting on a working majority of 166, but if such a symbolic seat fell to the Greens, it would threaten to demoralise the troops and herald a domino effect. The problem is that this is a strategy of high risk. It’s all very well saying that we don’t mean what we say, but is the US really to take us at our word? Our economy would hardly be grateful for more swingeing Donald Trump tariffs at the moment.
GERMANY - Germany’s post-unification political order as we knew it is coming to an end. The AfD won a historic 43.8 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt, crushing chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU, which fell to 17.2 per cent. But it fell short of an outright majority. Forming a new, stable ruling coalition in this eastern state will prove extraordinarily difficult. The election result is disastrous for Berlin’s cultural, political and media elites. They are in quiet despair at their own predicament. On talk shows and in live interviews, you can see them faltering, sinking into rhetorical platitudes and empty phrases devoid of meaning. Some of the most clueless display a lack of ambition that veers into the grotesque as they try to sugar-coat a disastrous election result. Others are on the verge of tears. The media cheerleaders of “our democracy” and the supposed “democratic centre” clucked helplessly, regurgitating the same old drivel they have been peddling for years. Germany finds itself where it never wanted to be again after 1945: on a dangerous precipice.
USA - Just when you think that things can’t get any crazier, somehow they do. We live at a time when the thin veneer of civilization that we all once took for granted is rapidly disintegrating all around us. Some people still behave rationally, but a lot of people don’t. Decades ago, the lunatics were an extremely small minority on the fringes of society, but today there are countless lunatics that are actually in positions of power. What is considered to be “normal” is being turned upside down in hundreds of different ways, and our entire society is descending into a state of constant chaos. When I was growing up, there is no way that Lindsay Clancy would have been considered a national hero by millions of Americans. In those days, they would have locked her up and thrown away the key. But in 2026, killing her three children has made her an instant celebrity. Just a few hours ago, her lawyer went on Good Morning America and suggested that President Trump should pardon her… We live at a time when we are constantly being bombarded by one crisis after another. Continual chaos has become our “new normal”...
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The views expressed in this section are not our own, unless specifically stated, but are provided to highlight what may prove to be prophetically relevant material appearing in the media.