CYPRUS - The president of Cyprus was appalled to discover that Britain was unprepared for the drone attack on Akrotiri last week. Our response has been to dust down HMS Dragon in Portsmouth and start to arm her, hoping she’ll set sail next week and — with luck — arrive the week after. In a panic, the Cypriots turned to Greece (as normal) then Spain and France (unprecedented) asking to be protected from the risk Britain’s bases had exposed them to. They didn’t have to wait long. Greek frigates and F-16s were on the island within hours. A French warship is there already, soon to be joined by a full air wing. Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are following in one way or another. If HMS Dragon ever does reach Cyprus, the cavalry from half of Europe will have long since arrived to the defence of Brits and Cypriots alike. Quite the humiliation.

MIDDLE EAST - If the war with Iran persists for an extended period of time, a lot of people could literally starve. Approximately half of all global food production is dependent on the use of fertilizer. Without fertilizer, crop yields would drop precipitously and there wouldn’t be anywhere near enough food for everyone. Even now, hundreds of millions of people are going to bed hungry every night, and there are severe food shortages in quite a few African nations. This is a trend that I have been closely monitoring for quite some time. We are at a very serious tipping point, and approximately one-fourth of all globally traded nitrogen fertilizer normally travels through the Strait of Hormuz. If we can’t get that fertilizer into the hands of those that need it, we are going to have a major crisis on our hands. At this moment, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been paralyzed…

DENMARK - One of the world's biggest container shipping groups said on Friday it ​has temporarily suspended two services linking ‌the Middle East to Asia and Europe as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global supply ​chains. The Danish group said in a statement it would halt its FM1 service ⁠connecting the Far East to the ​Middle East and its ME11 service linking the ​Middle East to Europe. "This decision has been taken as a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of ​our personnel and vessels while minimizing ​operational disruption across our wider network," Maersk said in ‌an ⁠advisory to customers. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply after the United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attacks on ​Iran in decades ​on ⁠Saturday in an operation that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

QATAR - Qatar's energy minister has warned the price of a barrel of oil could surge to more than $150 - dragging down global economies. Saad al-Kaabi says the Middle East conflict could result in a new energy crisis. The comments came as the price of crude soared around 7 per cent to over $90 a barrel having spent most of the year around the $60-$70 a barrel mark. A rise to $150 would see it more than double from where it was before the attacks on Iran. Mr Kaabi told the Financial Times that such a rise will 'bring down the economies of the world'. He told the FT that even if the war does end soon, it is likely to take weeks or months for production cycles to return to normal.

UK - The deployment of HMS Dragon to Cyprus has been delayed amid claims from union officials that the naval base responsible for its repairs only operates on a 'nine-to-five, Monday-to-Friday' schedule. The destroyer's mission to safeguard a British base in Cyprus, following last weekend's Iranian drone strikes, has been stalled as crews scramble to finalise essential welding and maintenance. According to the Prospect union, these delays are a direct result of 'cost-cutting' measures introduced by the Ministry of Defence and private contractor Serco. The union alleges that the Portsmouth naval base has abandoned its around-the-clock staffing model in favour of a standard 9-to-5, weekday-only operation. General Secretary of Prospect, Mike Clancy, said: 'Our members are stepping up to help, but such a vital service shouldn't be dependent on goodwill from staff. Out-of-hours support should be locked into the contract.'

IRAN - Iran has shared a chilling image of a nuclear missile striking an Israeli city, which appears to be Tel Aviv. In a post on X, the account previously belonging to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that "Khorramshahr is ahead", in reference to the ballistic missile named after the Iranian city. Included in the post was also a striking image of the missile being developed underground, fired from a mobile launcher, and hitting what appears to be the Israeli city. In another post, the account promised consequences, "by God's grace", for "the Zionist regime". The city depicted in the image appears to be Tel Aviv, with an Israeli flag and coastal skyline visible. This comes after Tehran launched an overnight attack of cluster bombs targeting Tel Aviv, which were seen in shocking videos flying through the air before crashing into the ground.

UK - Trump’s real Iran strategy is hiding in plain sight. It’s a disaster for Xi Jinping. We sometimes take a smug attitude in Britain towards the United States. We have a tendency to view the country as full of unsubtle cowboys, and US president Donald Trump as the worst of them all. Rarely has it been so misplaced. Most obviously, the US has been going from strength to strength, while we decline due to self-inflicted wounds. But Trump and his US administration are also being smarter than some give them credit for. They are thinking strategically about the challenges of this century and acting to defend the democratic world’s pre-eminence. For Israel, the war against Iran is about destroying the ability of the ayatollahs to threaten its existence. For the US, it is also a conflict to halt and reverse the creeping power of China, whose proxy is Iran. The stakes are vast. The outcome of this conflict, as yet unclear, will influence whether Beijing invades Taiwan. A US victory in the Middle East now may deter that invasion, and possibly even prevent a catastrophic war between the superpowers. Ultimately, the Iran war is part of the struggle of this century: which nation emerges as the world’s pre-eminent power, the US or China, and whose world-view predominates, that of the English-speaking world of democracy or Chinese Communism.

UK - After the vicious cost of living crisis that followed the pandemic, followed by the war in Ukraine, most of us are keenly aware of how vulnerable Britain is to global external shocks. Even now, nearly five years after lockdowns were mercifully lifted for good and four years since Putin’s tanks crashed over Ukraine’s borders, the impact of both those crises continues to be felt in people’s pockets. Nevertheless, I’m willing to bet that few of us expected the effects of events in Iran to be felt so soon after American and Israeli missiles and bombs began raining down on the Persian state. Yet here we are on day six of Operation Epic Fury (let’s call it a war because that’s what it is, even if Mike Johnson, the US House speaker, prefers to pretend it’s not) and already the economic and financial shockwaves are rippling through every household in Britain on multiple fronts. Put plainly, our living standards are once again under serious threat and our political masters must take much of the blame for their miserable failure to fortify the UK economy. It is negligence on an extreme scale.

TURKEY - Erdogan desperate to stay neutral as Iran war approaches Turkey’s borders. The Turkish president has urged diplomacy as fears of a refugee wave grow, but a missile targeting his country has changed the dynamic. In rural northern Syria, residents gathered in a field to inspect what is thought to be the remnants of a huge missile that was shot out of the sky by NATO air defences as it hurtled towards Turkey. The huge metal tube was found on Wednesday after Turkey’s defence ministry said a ballistic missile fired from Iran had been downed in the eastern Mediterranean. That it had travelled across Iraqi and Syrian airspace, with debris falling in Turkey’s southern Hatay province and in Qamishli in Kurdish-led Syria, highlights how delicate and interconnected regional stability is amid the ongoing US-Israeli assault on Iran. This time, however, Turkish territory had been affected. Anonymous US officials told media that the missile had been aimed at the country’s Incirlik airbase, which hosts a US Air Force contingent. It was intercepted by a US navy ship, according to reports.

IRAN - By targeting every GCC member with missiles and drones, Tehran has achieved the unthinkable: placing Israel and Qatar on the same team. This strategic blunder may finally cement a regional axis. Who would have thought? In September, Israel attacked in Qatar, targeting terrorist leaders the Gulf state was housing. But here we are. After five days of war with Iran, the Iranians have succeeded in putting Israel and Qatar on the same team – to say nothing of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and even Saudi Arabia – all countries targeted over the past five days by Iranian missiles and drones. By some estimates, Iran has fired more missiles and drones at Gulf states combined than at Israel.

USA - Experts have warned of the potential activation of Iranian sleeper cells across the West amid the ongoing US-Israel military action. Concerns were particularly raised after two Iran-related violent incidents took place this week - one in Austin, Texas, and one in Toronto. “The Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated in the past that it carries out its terror beyond its own borders,” Marc Henrichmann told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. Then on Tuesday, terrorism and Middle East expert Matthew Levitt warned German outlet TAZ that the Iranian regime may respond with attacks and assassinations in Europe. “Iranian operations abroad are definitely part of the regime’s toolkit for responding to attacks, including war,” Levitt - who used to work for the FBI - said.

IRAN - How Tehran can keep launching attacks indefinitely but Western missile supplies are weeks from running out. Iran's retaliatory campaign has exposed a growing imbalance between the production of drones and the exorbitant cost to shoot them down. A single Iranian drone can cost as little as $35,000 to produce, while intercepting it can cost anywhere from $500,000 to $4 million. By spreading strikes across more than five theatres at once and sustaining over 2,500 drones per day, Tehran is forcing its adversaries to divide their defences. Iran's advantage lies in scale, according to data gathered from open source intelligence and defence analysts. Rather than a few thousand long range drones, its total Shahed fleet is estimated at between 80,000 and 100,000 across all variants.

MIDDLE EAST - The Gulf states are now making the Israeli argument, not because they have suddenly become Zionists, but because Iranian missiles have a way of concentrating the mind. In August 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and accidentally unified the Arab world against him. It took him six months and a catastrophic defeat to grasp what he had done. Iran appears to be making the same mistake, at greater speed, with less excuse. It has been watching that history for 35 years. There is a particular kind of clarity that only incoming missiles provide. You can debate the causes of a war indefinitely. You can calibrate your sympathy, manage your public statements, and balance your relationships. You can, in other words, be a modern Gulf state operating in the age of strategic ambiguity. Then the drones start landing near your oil terminals, and the ambiguity evaporates. That is not a guarantee of anything. The Middle East has swallowed more promising moments than this one. But it is a beginning, the kind that starts not with a speech or a handshake, but with the sober realization, shared across capitals, that the threat is real, and the choice is stark.

UK - What happened to us? How did we fall so far, so quickly? Where is our moral compass, our self-respect, our pride? Sir Keir Starmer’s Britain stands alone, but for the most deplorable of reasons, unwilling to fight back when our bases are hit by drones, incapable of deploying what is left of the Royal Navy, unable to respond to the implosion of the old world order other than by incanting Leftist platitudes – debilitated, humiliated and disgraced.

UK - What’s the point of having aircraft carriers if we aren’t prepared to use them? The Royal Navy may be a shadow of its former self, but the UK’s aircraft carriers still represent a formidable defence asset. With the crisis in the Middle East becoming more perilous by the day, Sir Keir Starmer has belatedly realised it might be a good idea to ramp up Britain’s military presence in the region. The UK’s Sovereign Base at RAF Akrotiri has already come under attack in an Iranian drone strike, and an estimated 300,000 Britons are stranded in Gulf states. Only now has the Prime Minister reluctantly concluded that he has no option but to act. The Navy is sending a Type 45 destroyer, HMS Dragon, to Cyprus.