USA - The rest of the world tends to sit out the lame-duck weeks at the end of a presidential reign, holding its breath to see what the new commander-in-chief will do once in the Oval Office. Not this time. With eight weeks to inauguration day, there's a sense of growing instability which gives the countdown to the end of Joe Biden's term in the White House an almost uniquely dangerous character. In fact, we seem closer to a World War Three-style clash between superpower rivals than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

USA - Today, the US federal debt officially eclipsed $36 trillion, according to US Debt Clock (Treasury Department data, which hasn’t been updated today, still has the figure at $35.97 trillion). This is just mere months after it famously eclipsed $35 trillion at the end of July. The Congressional Budget Office, Congress’s source for “nonpartisan analysis,” has warned about the deleterious “effects of waiting to stabilize federal debt.” A perpetually rising debt-to-GDP ratio is unsustainable over the long term because financing deficits and servicing the debt would consume an ever-growing proportion of the nation’s income.

USA - Anti-Christian hate crimes, discrimination, and restrictions on the religious freedom of Christians are increasing in many European countries, according to a new report by the Observatory on Intolerance and Discrimination against Christians in Europe (OIDAC Europe). Using government statistics, police data, and information from international and local organizations, OIDAC found 2,444 anti-Christian hate crimes documented by police and civil society in 35 European countries in 2023, including 232 personal attacks on Christians, such as harassment, threats, and physical violence.

RUSSIA - The discussions in the West about authorizing long-range missile strikes on Russia are profoundly dishonest and misleading. The political-media elites present deeply flawed arguments to support the conclusion that attacking Russia with these weapons doesn’t cross the line between proxy war and direct war. NATO may be successful in deluding itself, yet for Moscow there is no doubt that this is an act of war. The point of departure in an honest discussion should start with the right question: When is the line between proxy war and direct war crossed? These are US long-range missiles, their use is entirely dependent on American intelligence and targeting. They will be operated by US soldiers and guided by US satellites.

RUSSIA - Contrary to some claims, the Oreshnik is not an upgrade of Soviet-era missile systems, according to Putin. Instead, it is a completely new development built on modern Russian technology. The president emphasized that the missile represents the culmination of efforts within “New Russia,” referring to developments after the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. “It was created on the basis of modern, latest developments,” he stated.

UKRAINE - Ukraine's former military chief has warned that World War Three is already underway - with Vladimir Putin's autocratic allies, North Korea, Iran and China, openly supporting his forces on the battlefield. Valery Zaluzhny, who is now Ukraine's envoy to the United Kingdom, told the UP100 award ceremony in Kyiv: 'I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun.' The General said that as of this year, 'Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Soldiers from North Korea are standing in front of Ukraine.' He made the comments after reports emerged that around 10,000 soldiers had been sent by Pyongyang to fight alongside Russian troops in the Kursk region, as Moscow aims to replenish its forces and reclaim the territory taken from it three months ago.

RUSSIA - Russia this morning allegedly fired an intercontinental ballistic missile as part of a brutal barrage of targets in Ukraine just one day after Kyiv's forces battered a Russian command headquarters in the Kursk region with British Storm Shadow missiles. The strike comes after Ukraine used US and British missiles to demolish targets inside Russia this week, something Moscow had warned for months would be seen as a major escalation. Ukraine's air force reported that an ICBM had been fired from a base in Russia's southern Astrakhan region on the Caspian Sea early this morning - the first time Russia has used such a powerful, long-range missile during the war. The Frontier missile is a terrifying, nuclear-capable weapon weighing roughly 50 tonnes with a range of up to 3,600 miles. It has never before been used in combat, but analysts said it could be deployed with a conventional warhead in a strike that Ukraine's air defences would be powerless to intercept.

RUSSIA - Russia has threatened to attack a new US defense base in Poland with “advanced weapons” — just hours after reportedly launching an intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine on Thursday. Moscow leveled the warning after saying the opening of the ballistic missile defense base, located in the town of Redzikowo near the Baltic coast, would lead to an increase in overall nuclear danger. “Given the nature and level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been added to the list of priority targets for potential destruction, which, if necessary, can be executed with a wide range of advanced weapons,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.

RUSSIA - Russia did not fire an ICBM today, they fired something much worse - a message! Despite the diminutive Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumping around and shouting about Russians firing an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) today, they didn’t. Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided his response to the US-led NATO group firing missiles into the Russian Federation would be to send a message with a multi-warhead intermediate range hypersonic missile. President Vladimir Putin said, “one of the newest Russian medium-range missile systems was tested in combat conditions, in this case with a ballistic missile in non-nuclear hypersonic edition.” The missile has a range of approximately 3,500 kilometers, below the threshold for the “Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT)," that’s a reach throughout western Europe and the hypersonic message is likely, ‘you have no iron dome system that can prevent this.'

RUSSIA - Britain 'directly involved' in Ukraine war, Russian ambassador tells Sky News. The ambassador says there has been "deliberate cheating of us" as he'd received multiple assurances the Storm Shadows would only be used inside Ukrainian territory. Speaking to Sky News, Andrei Kelin also warned the West to carefully consider the lower bar Russia has established for using nuclear weapons. British Storm Shadow missiles were fired into Russia just days after President Biden authorised the same policy shift. "We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities," Mr Putin said. "And in case of escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond resolutely in a mirror way."

USA - There are three things Trump will need to achieve to bring Putin and Zelensky to the negotiation table. The first is to persuade Putin that he’s going to lose eventually in the face of US and NATO support for Ukraine. Russia cannot realistically sustain its level of effort beyond 2025, assistance from China, Iran, and North Korea notwithstanding. The second is to sweet-talk Zelensky and Putin into compromise. Ukraine has quite firmly stated that its end game is the restoration of all captured territory and a return to the status quo ante bellum as of 2014. The future of Crimea is crucial here. Neither side wants to give it up voluntarily, but if it was to be returned to Ukraine then the future constitutional arrangements for Donetsk and Luhansk might be up for discussion. The third is Ukraine’s accession into NATO. From the outside this appears to be inevitable, although it may be delayed for many years yet. For Russia it will signal that it is being threatened along its borders once again. Trump will need to resolve this.

GERMANY - The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany has soared over the past year, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Thursday. The trend has been attributed to weak economic performance and rising costs in the EU’s largest economy. According to preliminary data, the number of regular insolvencies filed in Germany rose by 22.9% in October 2024 compared to the same month of last year. “The current wave of bankruptcies is the result of a perfect storm of long-term economic weakness and drastically increased costs,” Der Spiegel quoted Steffen Müller from the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) as saying. A total of 20,000 company bankruptcies are expected in Germany in 2024, up from 17,814 in 2023, the outlet wrote, citing analysts.

ISRAEL - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government intends to announce the formal annexation of the West Bank in the coming weeks, a source has told the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh. According to Hersh, Israel has been “fortified by bombs and funding” from Washington and is ramping up the expulsion of Palestinians from northern Gaza to the south of the enclave. Meanwhile, the religious parties that “dominate” Netanyahu’s cabinet are demanding full control over both occupied Palestinian territories. “I was told this week by a well-informed Washington official that the Israeli leadership will formally annex the West Bank in the very near future – perhaps in two weeks – in the hope that the decisive step will end, once and for all, any talk of a two-state solution and will convince some in the sceptical Arab world to reconsider financing the planned reconstruction of Gaza,” Hersh wrote in an article on his Substack on Wednesday.

UK - Labour has announced swingeing cuts to the UK's defence capabilities even as Britain is being dragged closer into direct conflict with Russia. In a shocking move which sent alarming signals to the Kremlin, 31 frontline helicopters and a pair of Commando assault ships were axed, while despite the domination of drones on the Ukrainian battlefield, the UK is to lose a staggering 46 Watchkeeper Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). A Royal Navy frigate and a pair of 'fast fleet tankers', which provide fuel for aircraft carriers, are also being chopped as part of the jaw-dropping plans.

USA - The Biden administration's push for Ukraine to strike Russia with US-made long-range missiles, expand conscription and fill their country with US-made land mines came right as a new Gallup poll found the majority of Ukrainians now want a quick, negotiated end to the war. After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. Nearly four in 10 Ukrainians (38%) believe their country should keep fighting until victory. Ukrainians' current attitudes toward the war represent a decisive shift from where they stood after it began in late February 2022. Surveyed in the months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukrainians were defiant, with 73% preferring fighting until victory. The closer Ukrainians are to the front lines, the more they want the war to come to a negotiated end.